Bangladesh 'tinderbox' : Jamat-e-Islami challenge & way ahead

Bangladesh 'tinderbox':Jamat-e-Islami challenge & way ahead
The murderous attacks on bloggers – which have claimed the lives of three secularist free thinkers this year and seven since 2013 – have highlighted the relentless danger facing Bangladesh since the liberation war in 1971. The outrage sparked in the cyber space by these killings has attracted worldwide concern though the situation on the ground remains dangerous as ever. In the words of Dhaka University academic and political economist, Professor Abul Barkat, the country remains a ‘tinderbox ’ and a sitting target for Islamist radicalists who roam the streets freely preaching their doctrine of violence in the name of Islam, the religion of peace. The word ‘Jihad,’ which the Islamists keep on invoking from pulpits of mosques and political and madrassa platforms, does not occur even once in Islam’s Holy Book, the Koran, says Prof Barkat. Yet the drumbeat of jihad keeps growing louder and louder. Speaking at a seminar in London Prof Barkat squarely named and blamed Jamat-e-Islami, Bangladesh, which he called as the ”HQ or headquarters” of a triangular set-up forever plotting the overthrow of the constitutionally established government of the country. The other two pillars of this structure, according to him, are the 123 radical groups and 231 NGOs (non-governmental organisations) funded nationally and from abroad. The three wings of this radical power bloc act as a loose conglomerate and constitute a ‘state within state’ and ‘government within government.’ The fundamentalist parallel economy whose finances come from enterprises owned and run by religious forces clocked a net estimated profit of nearly $320 million in 2014. The biggest share of that profit (27 per cent) comes from financial institutions, followed by NGOs (19 per cent), with trading, health, education, and real estate business contributing around 10 per cent each, besides other smaller contributors. More strikingly the growth rate of this fundamentalist economy is of the order of 9-to-10.5 per cent against the national GDP growth of about 6-to-7 per cent. The cumulative profit of this economy over the last four decades is estimated to top $6.5 billion, supporting “500,000 full-time cadres , capturing strategic posts and votes, and even allegedly running armed training camps. The trajectory of fundamentalism in Bangladesh is pretty well known. Starting with the division of the subcontinent into India and Pakistan in 1947, leading to the transformation of East Pakistan into independent Bangladesh after a bitter war that is said to have cost three million lives, the role of Jamat-e-Islami elements is well chronicled. They steadfastly opposed Bangladesh independence and remain unrepentant till today. The assassination of Bangladesh founder Sheikh Mujib-ur Rahman, the change of national constitution from a secular polity to making Islam as the state religion under General Zia-ur Rahman , and the ding-dong succession to power as prime ministers by the General’s widow Begum Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Mujib’s daughter Begum Sheikh Hasina Wazed, the current prime minister, continues to divide the country with little sign any rapprochement between the two blocs. Asked about any chance of peace or compromise between the two Begums, Prof Barkat’s blunt response was ‘No!’ His considered opinion: Bangladesh will have to find some other route to peace and progress. An ominous prognosis for the country wracked by instability of extreme proportions. Yet that is the stark reality readily conceded by analysts and observers, both insiders and outsiders. Prof Barkat’s analysis is echoed by a more recent report in London’s Guardian newspaper quoting prime minister Hasina’s appeal to the British government in particular and international community at large to take action against western based jihadis who are stoking religious extremism in Bangladesh. The recent arrest in Dhaka of a British based alleged mastermind, Tohidur Rahman, behind the brutal killing of two bloggers this year is being specifically held out as a warning against the rising ability of the Islamists to strike at will. It could be a case of lone wolf, yet the reality is that there are too many wolves roaming about and destabilising Bangladesh, preaching al-Qaeda, Islamic State or global Caliphate or Khelafat ideology in the name of Islam. The enormity of the challenge facing Bangladesh is brought out in sharp focus by the stark statistic of madrassas or faith schools at primary and secondary school level over the last 40 years. Every third student in Bangladesh is a madrassa student, affecting 8 million children, with 73 per cent of all madrassas, totalling 55,000, are under the ‘kaumi’ or privately run religious umbrella. While the number of state primary schools has merely doubled over the four decades, the number of privately run faith dominated schools known as ‘Dakhil madrassas’ has shot up 13 times. Likewise the expenditure per head in government schools is around 3,000 Takas while the spending per head in faith schools is around 5,000 Takas . Thus both ‘qualitatively’ and quantitatively the faith merchants are catching the young early, warns Prof Barkat. Unfazed by the enormous threat from the jihadist mindset, Prof Barkat believes that the secular, Sufi heritage, which he calls the DNA of Bangladesh, of over 450 years , would prevail, with a bit of help from abroad and political and administrative steps at home. Among the list of internal doables, he calls for a thorough audit of Jamat-linked financial transactions, confiscation of assets of extremists and weeding out of extremists within the government. However, the balance sheet of the 44 years since the birth of Bangladesh, he concedes, is not very inspiring. His insistence, like that of many of his compatriots, on punishment, for those involved in ‘war crimes’ during the liberation war is not likely to promote peace, direly needed for the country’s progress and development. Excessive insistence on punishment, especially death penalty, becomes too often counter productive. Perhaps it is time to think the unthinkable and offer an olive branch to the former misguided ‘enemies’ of the state in return for remorse and apology. A long jail term should be the limit even for the recalcitrants. The quality of mercy, sanctioned by all religions, humanistic and Sufi traditions, may yet be more profitable and practical and lead to peace and reconciliation. The country must move on. More immediately, the international community must extend a helping hand to Bangladesh, not only with anti-terror strategic cooperation, but also with generous financial aid to convert religious madrassas into mainstream state run secular schools to wean away young minds from the jihadi influence. Equally the country needs be helped with development programmes to reduce poverty and unemployment, the recruiting ground of jihadists of multifarious affiliations. The time to help Bangladesh is here and now— before the jihadists strike the tinderbox!
........................................(26 September 2015).....................................................

Kashmir today -- beyond news headlines

For a long time in the recent past Kashmir has been in the news for all the wrong reasons -- at least to the outside world. Political unrest, hartals or shutdowns of shops, bazaars and offices, even stray gunshots and stone pelting incidents during protest marches which make it to the newspaper headlines and television screens, too often obscure the beauty of its lakes and mountains, and the bustle and welcoming greetings of its people. Walking the Dal Lake Boulevard of Kashmir’s capital city Srinagar any time of the day transports you to the other reality of this lake isle of nature’s bounty and man’s effort to spread the joy to all comers. But the scene is doubly enchanting during the evenings when the waters of the Dal Lake are shimmering in the reflected lights of a long line of house boats along the far shore and the tiny lights of shikaras or gondolas sailing out from the Boulevard side. The lake’s waters cover an area of about 18 square kilometres with a shoreline of about 15.5 km. It has the Zabarvan mountain range with the Shankracharya temple on one of its peaks on one side and Harishankar temple range across the waters on the opposite side with scores of big and small houseboats on the lake edge. Colourful shikaras which line up the Boulevard and Zabarvan side keep the scene alive for the best part of the day. Come early evening, after a short siesta during warm summer days, the scene revvs up as the shikaras dart out in various directions with their tourist guests. The houseboat names vary from the local HB Riyaz and HB Fazil to international signs like HB Duke of Windsor, HB Derby Shire, New Mandalay, New Melbourne and New Australia. The shikaras have their own panache and variety with names like Sheikh Palace, Ashiq Palace, Lovers Light and Chinar to Lotus Island, Nightingale, Red Rose, Rose Mary, Lufthansa and even Journalism With Human Touch. Hotels, dhabas or eateries, craft shops and art galleries on the Boulevard side of the lake have their own taste–tingling titles. Lakshmi Dhaba, Punjabi dhaba, Punjabi Tadka, Delhi di Rasoi, Nathu Sweets, Poornima Vaishnu Bhojanalya and veg-non-veg Kareem’s all jostle for the hungry tourist’s attention. For those fond of their tipple, liquor shops are rather too few for a city like Srinagar or the entire Kashmir Valley. A definite damper for tourism but some of the bigger hotels do have bars to alleviate the plight of the thirsty. Handicrafts shops calling themselves art galleries full of beautifully embroidered bags with colourful motifs and designs beckon the shoppers looking for bargains and gift items for friends and relatives. Special discounts and sales are the order of the day with buyers and sellers testing their haggling skills all the time. Across the road on the pavement by the lake edge individual salesmen walk with their wares offering waistcoats, jackets, bags, broaches, maps , pictures, caps and bags at whatever price the two sides can settle after a fairly long banter. It is all good fun. Tourist accommodation -- houseboats, guest houses or three to five star hotels – is plentiful and available most of the time at a reasonable price. At the lower end one’s haggling skills are a definite advantage worth exploiting. Srinagar’s Dal Lake and its surroundings like Nishat Gardens, Shalimar Gardens, are a good introduction to the Paradise Valley which has a lot more to offer with places like Gulmarg, Sonmarg, Pahalgam and the rest. Ignore the scare stories from the Line of Control or one or two other areas and enjoy the general welcome. Holiday season is pretty long, so choose your moment and go for it. Ironically, just a few yards from the Nehrus hotel on the Boulevard is a reality of different sort – a sizeable presence of the Central Reserve Police Force billeted in a huge compound with a signboard outside saying: JOIN CRPF/&/BECOME/A PEACE WARRIOR. A few armed CRPF men in their fatigues with guns, helmets and boots can also be seen standing here and there or strolling past the tourists and general public. An odd presence certainly, but the tourists or locals don’t seem to be too bothered and the Boulevard bustle goes on. Away from the Boulevard in the heart of city at places like Lal Chowk ( Red Square), and Regal Chowk and other spots, the presence of this federal or central police, in addition to the Jammu and Kashmir state police, is rather more ubiquitous and hence somewhat more disconcerting. The central reserve police which is part of the federal security system under the AFSPA (Armed Forces Special Powers Act) umbrella has been a historic reality of the J&K state since the 1947 Partition of India, with part of the pre-partition state under Pakistan control and the other part with Srinagar as its capital under Indian control. Despite three Indo-Pakistan wars and occasional gunfire on or across the Line of Control, life goes on both sides with each side blaming the other for a variety of hiccups. The strength and the very presence of the CRPF, in addition to the federal Army units and the state’s own J&K police, on the Indian side has often been questioned by a variety of forces who consider it at at odds with the spirit of democracy. AFSPA continues to be hot potato with federal and state political forces holding varying points of view, with majority conceding it as a necessity while others demanding a considerable downsizing of the security apparatus. Very few question the presence of the Army which is considered essential on the Line of Control and other border areas. Broadly it does maintains a discreet distance in the civilian areas. Perhaps there is some more room for refining or repositioning of its presence and its role. But the rather ubiquitous presence of openly armed, helmeted and booted presence of the CRPF jawans or squaddies is another matter. It sends an altogether disproportionate message than is required for reasonable security needs. Their excessive visibility in urban areas from Lal Chowk to Dal Lake Boulevard and other places is nothing short of overkill in the name of security. In this age of instant telephony and mobility you don’t need CRPF jawans parading town streets and crossroads. Keep them billeted in selected in a few thanas or police away from the public glare and call them out only when it is absolutely necessary. Let the normal J&K state police do all the required patrolling. Too much CRPF visibility is counterproductive. It sends all the wrong signals and creates trust-deficit between the public and the law officers. Reduction of this trust-deficit is the key to good governance. Such an effort can be a good start towards a relook at the entire gamut of AFSPA. We can ignore this approach at our own peril. Doubting Thomases will straight away pooh pooh such an approach and cite incidents like the killing of two shopkeepers in quick succession in June in Sopore, the home ground of Syed Ali Geelani, the self-declared pro-Pakistan leader of the separatist Hurriyat faction. Blaming the killings on federal Indian or J&K state agents was instant, thanks in part to the federal defence minister Manohar Parrikar’s remarks a few days earlier that “terrorists could be killed by terrorists.” The state government’s order for an inquiry or its announcement of a million rupee award to anyone for information leading to solve the murders went unheeded. The possibility, even probability, of a new jihadi outfit called Lashkar-e-Islam carving out its own place in the turf war among militants and extremists cannot be ruled out and must be as vigorously pursued as any other explanation. Yet Sopore and similar happenings must not be allowed to cloud the overall situation in Jammu and Kashmir. A thriving democracy is in full play in the state. Local newspapers are full of all shades of opinion -- pro-ruling coalition, anti-government, anti-India, lone wolf, even pro-IS and pro-Caliphate voices galore. In the midst of all this political cacophony the Paradise Valley is very much intact with locals and tourists intermingling freely and army, police and people joining hands in times of nature’s fury and floods. ............................................................................................................................................. .

Oh, what an Orwellian Year for India!

The year that just ended on May 16 in India has witnessed a great fanfare. Launched much earlier in Gujarat, it has been hailed as not just a scenario change but as a game changer of sorts. Not a snake charmer show, nor a rope trick tamasha at some fairground; but an entirely jaw dropping nationwide picture show broadcast with all the internet gizmos. And the star of the show is none other than India’s own Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Thanks to his driving spirit he has taken his show to continents across the globe – from neighbouring Bhutan, Nepal and Burma to Japan and Australia; and hopping westward across France and Germany to Canada , slightly north of his friend Barack Obama’s USA. And eastward again to China, Mongolia and. For his next show, hold your breath. Don’t go away. His show will be back after the interval. A Bombay, sorry Mumbai, comedian said on his own TV show that Modi had done 14 countries in 12 months. Don’t believe the comic, he could be wrong. His arithmetic may not be good enough to keep an accurate count. Prime Minister Modi’s performances in Canada and China have irked his opponents at home, particularly of the Congress variety. They have taken special objection to his Canadian onslaught where he labelled Pre-Modi India as “scam-India” against his own new era launch of “skill-India.” Or in China where he told his select audience: “Earlier you wondered what sin you had committed to be born in India , now you feel proud to represent India.” The reaction back home has been predictably one of shock and outrage. Mr Modi might have been ashamed of being born in India, most Indians are not. Running down your own country or washing your dirty linen on foreign soil may be an unpardonable sin in international lexicon. Not in Prime Minister Modi’s dictionary. “Prime Minister Modi has done it again ... verbal character assassination of India’s achievements of the last 67 years on foreign soil is unacceptable and is a ‘new low’ in practising despicable politics. From Canada to China, the Prime Minister continues to repeat this historical blunder with scant regard to dissent, opposition and norms of conduct of the high office of Prime Minister,” berated a Congress party spokesman. Mr Modi claimed that India had gained a new respect in international eyes – a respect which was not accorded before his government took charge of the nation. Mr Modi’s notion is an “ insult to generations of Indians gone by who worked tirelessly to lay the foundations of the modern Indian state,” said the irate Congress man. Jokes and angry outbursts apart, it’s a bit disingenuous of Mr Modi to claim that he has won recognition for India. In fact it is the other way round. India’s recognition has never been questioned; it is only Mr Modi who had been derecognised since the 2002 happenings in his home state of Gujarat. He has been restored recognition because of India and because of his new position in India. About the achievements of his administration during the first year of his governance, it is a bit premature to make any claims. The pudding he has been cooking is not yet ready. It is still in the making. It’s promises, promises as yet. His pre-election promise to the voters that he would bring back black money stashed in foreign banks and would put Rs15 lakhs (Pounds 15,000) in every Indian’s bank account remains hopelessly in never never land.. In fact’ his chosen party president, Amit Shah, effectively Number Two powerful man in the current regime, let the cat out of the bag a few weeks ago when he said the Rs15 lakh promise was just a ‘Jumla’ – a casual sentence. A pre-election blank shot fired in the air ! Promises aside, yet the country is running and making impressive strides, thanks to the momentum gathered over the previous decades. India’s own space satellite is successfully orbiting round the Mars, and economy is chugging on course to achieve 6 to 7 percent growth. There are enough food stocks in reserve to overcome shortages of the current season, thanks again to the foundations laid in the previous years by the earlier generations of citizens and leaders. The Modi government is reaping the harvest of the Congress-led UPA governments of Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi and even earlier regimes. And long may any Prime Minister, including Mr Modi, enjoy the national heritage built up by one and all. Yet nations don’t live by bread alone. It’s the quality of community life that matters. It’s here that the Modi government’s performance that seems to have taken a beating. The sense of insecurity among sections of minority communities of various religious beliefs has been quite un-nerving at times during the past one year. Attacks on churches and free run of innuendos and downright abuse by some of ruling party members against people of different faiths have shaken many. The government’s attempts to deflect the criticism by calling the attacks as cases of unorganised stray vandalism has cut no ice with those affected. Nor is the wider public assured by the half-hearted and long delayed expressions of regret by one of the governing party’s MPs who referred to the majority of the population (Hindus) as ‘Ram-zadas’ or sons of the revered icon Lord Ram and some others (non-Hindus) as ‘Haram-zadas’ or bastards. It is not just the opposition parties who are angry over the state of things, some of the trenchant criticism has come from within the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) itself. Ram Jethmalani, a former law minister in BJP’s previous government under Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, has characterised Modi goveernment’s promise to bring back Black money lying in foreign banks as a “fraud on the nation” because of the government’s inability to identify tax havens, even though a previous government had pointed the finger at 40 of them. Another former BJP minister, Arun Shourie has bitterly attacked the Modi government for its failure to reassure the minority communities by citing the example of a former state police chief and provincial governor, Mr Ribeiro who after rendering invaluable service to the nation “feels unwanted in his own country.” Shourie also rounds on his party’s current regime for throwing the cabinet system of governance to the winds. The Modi government , he says , is run by a troika consisting of Mr Modi himself, the BJP party president Mr Amit Shah and Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. All other members of government or party are virtually redundant, he alleges. That is a view widely shared by opposition parties as well as by vast sections of general public. Concentration of power in the hands of Mr Modi through chosen bureaucrats in PMO ( Prime Minister’s Office) is common knowledge. Nothing moves without the green signal from the PMO or the nod of the Orwellian Big Brother himself. Scores of government departments remain headless for want of vital decisions, which a single person by himself simply cannot take. The net effect : non-governance, instead of ‘good governance’ and ‘achché din’ or good days , the double plank on which he won election a year ago. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

India overtaking China population by 42om in 2050

There is good news and bad news on the population versus prosperity front. This two-sided front is in fact a single entity where each part is anti-thetical to the other. The less population a nation or a community has the richer its members. Parsees, for instance, are India's smallest and richest community in India. Perhaps the Jains come next, though a fair way down the line. Whatever the crackpots from various communities -- there have been rather too many over the last few months on the Indian scene -- may say about every woman producing three, four or ten children to strengthen their community, the stark reality is that treating women as baby producing factories is not only insulting, it is the surest path to poverty and misery for every child, family and the community. But first the good news. India’s total fertility rate (TFR), the number of children per woman, slipped to 2.3 in 2013 from 2.4 in 2012, according to a report published in December last year just two months ago. Though an only 0.1 point decline, yet it is welcome. The positive trend is based on the Sample Registration System of the Registrar General of India. . The bad news is that the country is still struggling to achieve the much-awaited goal of reaching the TFR of 2.1 per cent, the replacement level. More alarmingly the population of India is likely to be around 162 crores (1620m) by 2050 when that of China will be about 138 crores (1380m), according to World Population Prospects( revised estimates for 2012). The 1983 National Health Policy target of achieving the total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 children per woman , which is also considered the replacement level, by the year 2000 was missed by a long chalk. Again the National Population Policy target set in 2000 of achieving 2.1 TFR by 2010 was missed. Sadly, the 2010 national TFR stood at 2.5, according to the Registrar General of India. The long term objective of the 2000 National Population policy was to achieve a stable (zero net growth) stable population by 2045. At the current rate we are pushing the stabilisation target to 2060. That need not be so. We have the medical and monetary wherewithal and we can shorten our target rather than wait till 2045 or for another half century till 2060. Our family planning strategy needs to be more focused than ever before. For the best part of last 40 years we have been obsessed with sterilization -- operating upon persons who have already produced three, four or more children , when the damage is done and objective of a small family already defeated. The birth control pill, which is the easiest and least complicated contraceptive to use and which has been available worldwide for more than 60 years, has been the most popular and effective contraceptive all across Europe and other parts of the developed world. So successful indeed that desire for a smaller family and fewer children has made couples to forego cash and holiday incentives offered by certain governments. Even in countries like Germany and Russia which are witnessing negative or zero population growth there are very few takers of such incentives offered by the state. In poorer countries like Romania and Hungary too, young couples tend to go for smaller but prosperous families, ignoring traditional Catholic religious reservations. The cafeteria approach looks good in terms of free choice but in reality it doesn’t play out so fair and free. The cash incentives to motivators and acceptors of other forms of contraceptives, especially sterilisation in various forms, act as a powerful factor in the cafeteria. Sterilisations can be easily counted and monies collected by motivators and acceptors. But pills popped in at home can’t be verified and cash handouts difficult to pick. Consequently the pill seems to have fallen off the cafeteria shelves as only about three percent women in the 15-45 age group are taking to the pill, unaware of the advantages of the pill. Over 90 per cent child bearing women in India are barely aware of the pill’s benefits like regularising of periods, bleeding control, lesser ovarian problems and, above all, spacing out pregnancies for better mother and child health. Researchers say the pill can even cut the risk of developing breast, ovarian and womb cancer. They even go on to recommend the pill for nuns too for reasons of health rather than as a conrtraceptive because it reduces overall mortality and mortality due to ovarian and uterine cancer. In India, medical or paramedical advice on the easy-to-use pill for controlling family size and better family welfare could be most well timed and effective after the first or second child birth. Our long obsession with sterilisation operations -- vasectomy, no scalpel vasectomy, tubectomy, IUD -- in spite of the numerical surges running into lakhs over the last few years has failed to stem the explosive growth in the Hindi heartland of the country. And it must be underlined that the success of the southern states and some northern states cannot be attributed to sterilisation programmes. Rather it is due to factors like higher female education rate, mid-day school meals, and availability of home entertainment in the evening, thanks to the distribution of free television sets by some the ruling parties. Sterilisations are the biggest gimmick. Collection of cash handouts by NGOs, individual motivators and volunteers who undergo such operations is the main attraction of most participants in this elaborate game. Even doctors who perform these operations are in this somewhat lucrative loop. All this money would be worth investing if it could move us to nearer to the population control target. An overwhelming majority of such operations are performed on women who have already given birth to three , four or more children and have reached the menopause stage. Men, notoriously, account for a mere five percent of total number of sterilisation operations, according to the available surveys published in the quarterly journal of the National Institute of Health and family Welfare . Reports of botched up sterilization operations at ad hoc camps have been galore year after year. Only three months ago 13 women died after surgical sterilisation at a camp in Chhattisgarh. The exact cause of their deaths remains unidentified and culprits – doctors or medicine suppliers -- not yet nailed. In January this year 73 women were operated upon in four sort hours at a sterilisation camp in Varanasi. by a single doctor at a primary health centre in Chiraigaon. N violation of guidelines which prescribe no more than 30 surgeries per day by one doctor. Lack of adequate facilities at the camp meant that the poor women were asked to recoup on the floor before being discharged. The solution is not to discontinue sterilisations but to make sure that rogue doctors , spurious drug suppliers and hygiene violators are jailed. Camps at ill-equipped centres should be banned. While sterilization camps give a bad name to the operation and hogs headlines, other instruments of family planning remain neglected. The pill which has been available worldwide for over 60 years has been grossly neglected in India. It has proved its worth in Europe and the Americas and many other countries where population has stabilised, thereby affording prosperity to average family. Before the Pill only rich could give a decent life to their families and children while the masses remained poor. After the Pill the poor could also have taste prosperity because of small size families. Over the past six decades the Pill has acquired a versatility – daily, ‘Saheli’ style weekly and other varieties. All that is needed is to make it popular and available at all levels. It is the cheapest and most easy contraceptive and it is time India wakes up to it. Tailpiece. Father of the birth control Pill, Carl Djerassi, the chemist who led a research team in Mexico City that in 1951 developed ‘norethinderone,’ the key component of the pill, died of cancer at his home in San Francisco earlier this year in February at the age of 91. .............................................................................................................