Wednesday, 2 March 2016

India - Pakistan dialogue: hope amidst spoiler attack in Afghanistan?

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s impromptu call on Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif  to wish him Happy Birthday in December  has raised a flurry of optimism on Indo-Pak relations. Modi’s drop-in call on Sharif en route to Delhi  from Kabul where he had gone to inaugurate the Indian-built Afghanistan’s  parliament building was welcomed as a happy surprise both in Pakistan and India.
The momentum continues with their likely meeting in Washington where both leaders have been invited to a  nuclear summit hosted by  President Obama on March 31-April 1.  There is also a possibility of  Indo-Pak foreign secretary level  unofficial meeting on the sidelines of a SAARC conference in Nepal  next month in March.
But a sudden jolt to the dialogue hopes has been delivered by a  suicide bomber’s attack (3rd March 2016) on the Indian consulate at Jalalabad in Afghanistan, leaving nine people dead, apparently by Taliban elements in cahoots with Pakistan’s state or non-state operatives. Thanks to the Afghan security forces, all Indian staff were reported safe. Any denial of involvement by Pakistani authorities is simply not believable in India. The umpteenth attack on Indian consulates and other posts in Afghanistan underlines yet again India’s inability to lower its guard against its neighbour.
        
In spite of this latest spoiler, there is hope yet for a dialogue revival after Pakistan’s filing of  an  FIR  against some unknown  persons possibly involved  in the terrorist attack on the Indian Air Forces base at Pathankot. Islamabad’s  further actions of  taking  Jaish -e- Muhammad’s anti-Indian leader  Maulana Masood Azhar  into protective custody and the upcoming visit of Pakistan’s special investigation team to Pathankot, as agreed with India,  lend s some more hope to the revival of a bilateral dialogue.  

Most pertinently comes the reported acknowledgement of  Pakistani Prime Minister’s Adviser on Foreign Affairs, Sartaj Aziz, that at least one call made by the terrorists involved in the Pathankot attack was traced to the Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) HQ, the covert-warrior outfit in Pakistan’s Punjab province.

The fly in this whole ointment is the fact that the FIR filed by Pakistan government is against “unknown” persons . The prominent  conspirator,  Masood Azhar , named by India, has not been named even as a suspect in the FIR by Pakistan. Nor has he been arrested; he has been taken only in “protective custody.” No wonder India is going to ask the United Nations once again to include Azhar specifically and individually in the list of banned persons along with the Jaish-e- Muhammad outfit which is already in the UN’s list of proscribed organisations.

Pakistan’s  apparent gestures of  thaw in bilateral relations need to be translated into concrete actions, not just in the Pathankot episode but also in the Mumbai attack which has been hanging fire since 2008. For that to happen , Pakistan  needs to  have a re-look at its overall definition of  terrorism . It must abandon its equation of terrorism on its western Afghan border with terrorism on its eastern Indian border. The two brands belong to different categories. Its western border trouble comes from  the Taliban tiger which it has been riding for long. Riding the tiger has never been easy and Pakistan cannot deflect the issues by saying that the Taliban are funded by India. Nor can anybody believe that the recent attack on Bacha Khan university in its frontier province was Indian inspired or financed. Bacha Khan is the name of  Frontier Gandhi  Abdul Ghaffar Khan, one of the most revered legends in India since before the partition of the subcontinent. No Indian agency can ever think of attacking an institution named after him. Pakistan must look into its own ‘gareban’ or fold !

Terrorism on Pakistan’s eastern border with India is altogether of a different brand. To put it bluntly it is inspired, abetted and activated by Pakistan’s own state or non-state actors. Neither India nor anybody else believes the fiction that Pakistan is a victim on both sides of its border. On the eastern side it is certainly not  a hapless victim. It must restrain its state or non-state actors on the eastern side and act against them with the same vigour as it does with actors on its western border.


Pakistan can do it but it must have the will to do it. If it does it will be a game changer not only in the subcontinent but in the entire region.
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