Two recent positive trends
in India’s population control efforts point out a decline in child marriage age
among all communities and a sharper decline in Muslim family size compared to
majority Hindu community family size, debunking the myth of continued disproportionate
rise of Muslim population in the country.
The Muslim family size dropped from 5.61 to 5.15 members while the national average family
size dropped from 4.67 to 4.45 in the decade between 2001 and 2011, according
to the 15th Indian Census
(2011).
In the education field student
numbers in the 5-to-19 age group have recorded a jump of overall 30 per cent nationally
while among Muslims student population rose by 44 per cent, making up some of the
ground lost over the previous decades when the community lagged behind others.
Within the Muslim community the girls recorded a hefty 53 per cent rise, taking
the community’s student population to 63 per cent, which is still behind other
communities. The figure for students in Hindu community is 73 per cent, with
Christians at 80 per cent and Jains at 88 per cent.
The sharper improvement
in social trends among Muslim community appears most probably , rather clearly,
due to improvement in education field, though it still has to do a lot of
catching up with other communities. A welcome realisation , even if a bit late.
However, the bigger
picture shows that overall India’s population increased to 121 crore,
indicating a decadal growth of 17.64 per cent which is almost as high as in the
previous ten years between 1991 and 2001, a worrying sign.
In crude numbers the country’s population rose
by 182.32 million (18.23 crore) in the decade between 1991 and 2001 while it
grew by 181.21 million (18.12 crores) in the decade between 2001 and 2011. Roughly
translated India’s net population has been growing by a steady figure of
slightly less than 20 million (two crore) every year since 1991, showing a very
marginal decline.
Such a persistently
high rate of increase over the last 20 years means that India will once again
miss the population targets set in previous years. The 1983 National Health Policy target of achieving The
current (total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 children per woman, which is also
considered the replacement level, by the year 2000 was missed by a long chalk.
Again the 2000 National Population Policy target of achieving 2.1 TFR by 2010
was missed.
With the
current TFR hovering around 2.3, it is
nowhere on target. In such a scenario, the target of stabilising population by 2060 could
also meet the fate of our previous hopes, unless we take some urgent steps to
significantly slow down our rising population graph.
The current rate of investment in health care and
education, the two pillars of population planning, doesn’t look very promising.
India has the fastest
growing population, and an ambitious growth aspiration, but it has always had a disproportionately small
health budget. In 2015, this shrank further to 1.2 per cent of the GDP, one of the lowest in the world. China spend three per cent of its GDP on healthcare while
Britain spends as much as eight per cent.
India needs to significantly increase the budget for the family planning sector, else it may fall short of the commitment, made last year by Union Health Minister J.P.Nadda, to provide the services to 48 million new users in the country by 2020, says a new study.
India needs to significantly increase the budget for the family planning sector, else it may fall short of the commitment, made last year by Union Health Minister J.P.Nadda, to provide the services to 48 million new users in the country by 2020, says a new study.
The study by Population Foundation of
India (PFI) says the country would need to spend about Rs 15,800 crore, if not
more, during 2013-2020, to meet its commitment of providing additional family
planning services through public funded providers to 48 million people, according to Poonam Muttreja, Executive
Director, PFI.
Family Welfare, which includes the budget
for family planning constitutes only 4 per cent of the 2014-15 Health and
Family Welfare budget, she points out. The share for family planning within the
larger Family Welfare budget has been further reduced to around 10-15 per cent
with subsequent reductions in contraceptive procurement and social marketing.
Under- investment
in education and health sectors, the two key instruments for meeting sustainable
population targets can only mean a longer wait for poverty reduction. How long
more for ‘Garibi Hatao’ -- end to poverty – dream? Next year it
will be exactly 70 years since independence. At the current pace even the 2060 target looks unachievable.
The
unending tragedy of farmer suicides year
after year and the recurrent inter–caste battles for ever more reservations for
government jobs and other quotas can be
tackled only by aggressively higher spending in education and health sectors –
not by budget reductions as we are doing now.
Is any
one listening?
